April 19, 2008

Market Update

After the Dow's strong showing last night (see here), I received an sms from a trusted broker friend of mine informing me that he believes that we are almost 80% through this current crisis.

His view was substantiated when I logged into Sgfunds this morning and read what Starry had to say:

1st statement posted last night:

If tonight DJI closes above 12800, be ready for the above moment.

Things will go crazy one more time.

Forget about all the noises and all the never ending debates on sub-prime and recession. Never believe in them from the first day except that they make good reading.

The doom day will come, but everyone before they die will have a good day. But then people have called me crazy after they read what I said above, so up to you to believe in my judgement and evidence.

2nd statement posted this morning:

In response to this statement: Something is very wrong...banks announce losses and share price surges??? eg Citigroup and Merril.

I know abt EMH and rational expectations but this is a bit stretching it don't u think.

It has nothing to do with the banks. Sub-prime was never the main factor of dragging the market down over the last few months anyway. I have said that so many times till I am blue on my face.

I read TODAY's and it says that local property sales have drop like 46% compare to the last quarter because people are all waiting at the sidelines? Wait a minute....it says people are doing the "wait and see", hence poor sales. It didn't say people "gave up". Can't be any better setting for the property market to continue shooting up.

I know many people are hoping the property prices to come down, but looking at the current situation, it's not going to happen anytime soon. People who are doing the wait and see now is going to be sorry.

3rd statement posted this morning:

In response to this statement: the surge most likely, is due to pent up money looking for a good return. those money on the sidelines are itching to find something good. its the flow of funds and the presence of it that matters. anything else is pretty secondary.

look at tech.

The surge more likely due to the breach in the critical 12750-12800 level. It's a breach against a near triple resistance. It's a matter of time anyway, just look at the weekly charts and you know what I mean.

Expect it to come back down to near these levels before gaining strength again.

Conclusion:

The timing of these views nicely coincide with my own view that it may be a good time to buy in again once the next set of corporate results are in and stock prices are reevaluated based on their earnings revisions.

Watch this space for updates on stocks worth buying soon!

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